analogy:
You think that your team is going to win. Your confidence is ill founded, though, because...
choice E:
...it's possible that your team could lose by just a few points, rather than being crushed by a 30- or 40-point margin.
hopefully it's clear why this ^^ is a nonsense response. (this is the kind of thing you might say to someone who thinks the team WILL be crushed... but definitely not to someone who thinks the team will win!)